Bayesian: the stability limit her owner was never shown
The unwritten limit
The UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch put hard numbers on the loss in its interim report of May 2025. A study by the Wolfson Unit at the University of Southampton found that in the assumed loss condition - motoring configuration, centreboard raised, sails furled - Bayesian's angle of vanishing stability was 70.6 degrees. A beam gust above 63.4 knots was enough to push her past it, and investigators noted she may have been vulnerable at lower wind speeds still.
The approved stability information book told a different story, recording angles of vanishing stability between 84.3 and 92.3 degrees, all calculated with the centreboard lowered. No curve covered the keel-up motoring state she was actually in at anchor off Porticello on 19 August 2024, so the limitation was unknown to the owner and crew alike. The Wolfson Unit also found that the 72-metre mast alone accounted for half of the total wind heeling moment with the wind on the beam.
What the salvage settles
TMC Marine oversaw the recovery, raising the 56-metre hull on eight steel lifting straps and bringing it ashore at Termini Imerese in late June 2025, where Italian authorities hold it for forensic examination. Marine Industry News put the cost of the operation at around 30 million dollars. Work had been suspended the previous month after Dutch diver Rob Huijben died during underwater operations. Seven people died in the sinking itself, among them Mike Lynch, his daughter Hannah and chef Recaldo Thomas, while 15 of the 22 on board survived.
The salvage matters to the investigation because the interim findings were desktop work, built on an assumed loss condition. Physical access lets the Marine Accident Investigation Branch verify the actual loading, centreboard position and downflooding points, and its final report remains unpublished as of July 2026, with no date announced. The branch has been clear, as BOAT International notes, that its remit is preventing future accidents rather than assigning blame.
Questions for your captain
Italian prosecutors read the same night differently. Their preliminary findings, reported by Megayacht News in May 2026, describe the weather as "little more than a squall" and focus on crew actions, with negligent shipwreck and manslaughter charges under consideration against the captain and two crew members. The interim report sits on the other side of that argument, citing a UK Met Office study that indicated probable transient hurricane force winds well in excess of 64 knots.
That dispute will take years to resolve, and an owner does not need to wait for it. Ask your captain whether the stability book covers every configuration the yacht actually operates in, including keel up, sails stowed, at anchor. Ask what wind speed exceeds the angle of vanishing stability in that state, and at what forecast threshold the watch wakes the captain and starts the engines. Bayesian's crew could not answer that from the paperwork on board, and the findings so far say every owner should be able to.