Ferretti's order book shrinks 27pc, and UBS downgrades the stock

The first report card since Weichai took the wheel

Ferretti Group's board approved its results for the six months to 30 June on 3 August, the first full financial statement issued since Weichai's slate won the contested 14 May shareholder vote and Stassi Anastassov replaced Alberto Galassi as chief executive. Net revenue from new yachts came to EUR 585.6 million, down 5.6 percent on the same period last year, though the decline eased through the year: an 8 percent drop in the first quarter narrowed to 2.9 percent in the second. Adjusted EBITDA fell to EUR 92.5 million from EUR 99.1 million, holding the margin at 15.8 percent, and net profit dropped 13.1 percent to EUR 37.9 million from EUR 43.6 million.

Anastassov's own framing, given on the earnings call and reported by Confindustria Nautica, called the group 'an extraordinary company, with exceptional brands, highly talented people and one of the strongest financial positions in the sector,' while conceding the first half 'confirms that we are operating in a more challenging market environment than in recent years.' Those are the numbers a buyer mid-contract should actually read: margin held, profit fell but stayed positive, and the group kept paying its dividend, EUR 37.2 million distributed in the period. Nothing here resembles the EUR 267 million of overdue debt that pushed The Italian Sea Group into court protection on 1 July. Ferretti's problem, on this evidence, is commercial, not financial.

Orders fall further than revenue, and the backlog thins

The weaker line is new business. Order intake for the first half came to EUR 341.4 million, down 26.9 percent from EUR 467.3 million a year earlier, and it worsened in the second quarter: UBS put Q2 intake alone at EUR 162 million, an 18 percent year-on-year decline, against EUR 284 million of quarterly revenue. Net backlog, the contracted work still to be built and delivered, stood at EUR 564.9 million on 30 June, down from EUR 760.8 million twelve months before, a drop of roughly 26 percent that UBS separately measured at 22 percent quarter on quarter. Anastassov did not dress it up: 'Order intake remains below the levels required to replenish our backlog at the pace we would like. Our challenge today is therefore primarily commercial rather than financial,' he told analysts, according to Rus Tourism News' account of the call.

The group has pointed to longer customer decision cycles, tougher competition and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly around the Middle East, as the drags on new signings, and it has been most visible in the largest, most bespoke yachts, the segment that anchors Ferretti's Custom Line and CRN order books and the one where a buyer typically waits longest between signing and delivery. A shrinking backlog cuts both ways for that buyer: it can mean a shorter queue and a faster slot at the yard building the boat, but it is also the clearest sign yet that the market above roughly 40 metres has gone quiet, which matters to anyone weighing a custom order against buying an existing hull instead.

The market's verdict: UBS downgrades, and prefers Sanlorenzo

UBS cut Ferretti to neutral from buy on 5 August and trimmed its price target to EUR 3.15 from EUR 3.70, arguing that a 'weaker luxury yacht market, slower order conversion and execution risks under new management leave few near-term catalysts.' The bank now expects order intake to fall 28 percent for the full year, worse than the 20 percent decline it had pencilled in before these results, and it named Sanlorenzo as its preferred stock in the sector instead. That phrase, execution risk under new management, is an analyst's way of pricing in exactly the boardroom uncertainty this desk covered on 17 July: Weichai's board is running the company, but KKCG Maritime's suit at the Civil Court of Bologna seeking to annul the May vote is still open, and Rome's review of whether Weichai's stake should fall under the golden power rules protecting Ferretti's Italian navy and coast guard patrol-boat business has not been resolved either.

Ferretti shares fell 6.75 percent on the guidance cut, closing near a 52-week low, according to Investing.com's coverage of the announcement. None of that changes a delivery date or a warranty on a contract already signed, since those obligations sit with the operating companies rather than with the shareholders arguing over the board table. But it is a market read worth having before signing a new one: the analysts closest to the stock now rate the group's near-term outlook as a hold at best, and they are pricing the unresolved governance fight into that call, not just the softer order book.

Cash improves as guidance falls

The one figure moving the opposite way is cash. Net financial position swung to EUR 95 million of net cash at 30 June, up EUR 76.6 million from just EUR 18.4 million at the end of March, which the group attributed to the seasonal release of working capital as yachts built over the winter were delivered and paid for through the summer season, plus a lower inventory of finished composite boats sitting unsold on the water. That is the number that matters most for counterparty risk: a yard sitting on net cash, rather than net debt, is in a materially different position from one filing for court protection, and it gives Ferretti room to absorb a slower order book for some time without the kind of liquidity scramble that hit Italian Sea Group's shipowners this summer.

Set against that, management cut its own full-year guidance. Revenue guidance for 2026 moved to EUR 1.20 to 1.24 billion from EUR 1.25 to 1.27 billion previously, adjusted EBITDA guidance fell to EUR 186 to 197 million from EUR 203 to 210 million, and the EBITDA margin range slipped to 15.5 to 15.9 percent from 16.2 to 16.6 percent. Capital expenditure guidance was trimmed too, to EUR 60 to 65 million from EUR 70 to 75 million, a EUR 10 million reduction that reads as the group slowing its own investment pace to match the slower order intake rather than borrowing to keep spending at the old rate.

What a buyer or owner does with this

For an owner with a Riva, Pershing, CRN or Custom Line hull already under contract, the practical read is reassurance on the money and a question mark on the boardroom: the balance sheet backing that contract is solid, dividends are still being paid, and nothing in these numbers points to a yard in distress. What is not resolved is who sits on the board by the time a multi-year build delivers. The Bologna suit and the Rome golden power review are both still open, with no ruling date confirmed by either body as of this report, so a buyer signing now is signing with a shareholder structure that could still change before the keel is even laid on a large custom order.

For a prospective buyer shopping the segment, the backlog contraction is the more useful number: a yard with a thinner order book has more reason to talk about slot availability and delivery dates than one booked years out, which is worth testing directly with the sales office rather than assuming from the group-level figures. And for anyone simply pricing risk across the Italian yard sector this summer, three EUR-hundred-million-scale figures now sit side by side, worth holding in mind together: Ferretti's EUR 565 million backlog and EUR 95 million net cash, against Italian Sea Group's EUR 267 million of overdue debt under court protection at the same moment. They are not the same kind of company in the same kind of trouble, and the numbers, not the headlines, are what show it.